Solar Activity Threatening to Get Worse
The sun is threatening to get worse after solar activity sent out a stream of Solar Flares this week, culminating in a flare that had many watchers of the NOAA fearing for a possible solar storm earlier than NASA predicted. With 14 M class solar flares and even an X class event, it seems the sun is getting more active by the day. But what are these different solar classifications and what do they mean for us here on Earth?
Scientists developed a solar flare classification system based on the Angrotrom wavelength range. The three categories are divided up from smallest to largest. At their smallest are C class flares. C class flares are smaller flares with little to no noticeable effect on Earth. But as we go up in scale, the effects can range from radio broadcast difficulties to extreme effects from solar events. Medium sized flares are known as M class flares. There have been fourteen of these in the past few days. After this are X class flares. X class flares are the most profoundly devastating, and according to the NOAA these could trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long term radiation storms. The X class flare that was released last night But an X class flare does not necessarily guarantee any major effects will be felt here on Earth.
In February the largest X class flare at the time was released and passed by the Earth but few noticeable effects were felt. As the day progressed more flares were released and hit Earth. But this latest onslaught of solar activity may be soon followed by an even larger X class flare which could prove devastating if it were to release a large enough blast. Through this increasing solar activity there have been dozens of M class solar flares with no noticeable effects for those of us on Earth.
But there are unverified claims that these flares can cause other effects on Earth including Earthquakes and unusual weather patterns. With scientists still attempting to fully understand the vast complex systems surrounding solar activity, there are many who suggest the X factor we have not yet been able to fully determine may not actually originate on Earth at all, but rather with the sun.
Of course the most iconic event when it comes to solar activity is the 1859 Carrington event. In 1859 telegraphers found themselves using equipment that would spark and overload, even smoldering in some instances from the intense solar activity. Such an event to day would cripple or even disable most governments of the world and result in widespread chaos that could take several years to fully recover from. The most disturbing element of the Carrington event is the fact that it did indeed happen already and could again with the activity of a largely unpredictable body we have all come to depend on. Are we looking at another Carrington Event in the works? Scientists have not committed to anything yet, but NASA warned that a solar event such as this could cause widespread devastation and predicted it as a possibility as early as 2013.
By Chris Capps 3/9/11
There goes the sun, passing gas again!! 😛 :sun:
Aww man I hope we can see the Auroras here!! That would be so freaking awesome. :clap: :star:
[flash width=640 height=390] http://www.youtube.com/v/yGKPHFrHVVY?version=3 [/flash]
It's been a long cold lonely winter......
There goes the sun, passing gas again!! 😛 :sun:
> Aww man I hope we can see the Auroras here!! That would be so freaking awesome. :clap: :star:
Kind of hard to see through the rain and clouds!;-)
DJJ
We are having some pretty typical Pacific Northwest weather right now.
Currently: sunny, raining and mild temp.
5 Minutes ago: Pouring down rain.
Half hour ago: Gail force winds, raining sideways and freezing cold.
In an hour: Repeat the cycle.
Jered-
See AFDBs to the ready Chaps !!! (Humor) below
TNAI
Yea, I lived in Lincoln City for a good part of the 90's.
It rains, but that's why it's nice and green!:-)
Engineer here at the office set his solar panels up last night, and with just the moon and the northern lights (which were fantastic BTW!) and it immediately started charging at 0.4 volts!
-JD-
> Engineer here at the office set his solar panels up last night, and with just the moon and the northern lights (which were fantastic BTW!) and it immediately started charging at 0.4 volts!
>
> -JD-
Totally jealous!!!!!!!!!! 😛
Does he have any pics?? :sun:
Sun is all North Radar
Dugger, we are going on our 23rd straight clear, sunny day!!! Awesome spring, temps hit near freezing during days, zero or so at night. Perfect. 🙂
FANTASTIC Northern Lights at night with no moon.
Sun is all North Radar
> FANTASTIC Northern Lights at night with no moon.
Pics??? Please??? 🙂 :clap:
Sun is all North Radar
> Dugger, we are going on our 23rd straight clear, sunny day!!! Awesome spring, temps hit near freezing during days, zero or so at night. Perfect. 🙂
>
> FANTASTIC Northern Lights at night with no moon.
Sounds good to me, are you hiring? 😀
Douglas Casement, PLS
Sun is all North Radar
downsizing big time
Sun is all North Radar
> downsizing big time
Seems to be a common theme....:-(
Dugger
Angel, pics as requested
> Pics??? Please??? 🙂 :clap:
My brother took these this week at his cabin up around Talkeetna
There's actually more classifications than that. The weakest solar flares are Class A, then Class B, then C, M, and X, as mentioned above. This is based on the peak flux (i.e. maximum brightness) of Xrays emitted by the flare. I have no idea what an "Angrotrom wavelength" is - never heard of it before.
Each class is also divided into nine categories. An A1 flare is the weakest. An A2 flare is twice as strong as an A1, then an A3 is three times as strong as an A1, etc., up to A9. A B1 flare is 10x stronger than an A1, then a B2 flare is twice as strong as a B1 (and 20x stronger than an A1). Similar for the other classifications, up to X. So an X1 flare is 10,000x greater than an A1 flare. Really large flares are considered Class X, and the number just keeps going up. An X10 flare is 10x stronger than an X1 flare, or 100,000x greater than an A1. An X17 flare is 17x stronger than an X1 flare, or 170,000x greater than an A1
> But there are unverified claims that these flares can cause other effects on Earth including Earthquakes and unusual weather patterns. With scientists still attempting to fully understand the vast complex systems surrounding solar activity, there are many who suggest the X factor we have not yet been able to fully determine may not actually originate on Earth at all, but rather with the sun.
This is a very unfortunate paragraph to have included. There is absolutely no evidence for or reason to believe that solar flares cause earthquakes. But statements like this seem to take on a life of their own on the internet, as more and more people repeat them, despite the lack of evidence for them. My guess is that people are intuitively thinking it might be true, since "every action has an equal and opposite reaction". And there's still a lot we don't know about earthquakes and the Earth's magnetic field, so we probably can't say incontrovertibly that it is impossible. But it is contrary to scientific observations. Earthquake frequencies and magnitudes do NOT vary along with the solar cycle, making it extremely doubtful that there's any relationship whatsoever between solar flares and earthquakes.
> Are we looking at another Carrington Event in the works? Scientists have not committed to anything yet, but NASA warned that a solar event such as this could cause widespread devastation and predicted it as a possibility as early as 2013.
That's kind of like saying "A large earthquake could cause widespread devastation and is predicted as a possibility as early as 2013". It's technically true, but it's kind of a nonsense statement.
Solar flares happen regularly. They are caused by the fact that the sun is a seething ball of plasma, with many north and south magnetic poles all over its surface. The sun also rotates in a very bizarre fashion, with the poles rotating slower than the equatorial region. This causes the magnetic lines between all the north and south poles to start twisting up. The magnetic lines can get extremely twisted, like giant corkscrews, without breaking. But eventually, the strain is too great, the magnetic flux lines break, and we get a solar flare.
These solar flares follow a cycle, where there are a lot of them for a while, then not so many, then a lot, etc. This cycle typically lasts approximately 11 years, but it's not an even cycle like the Earth's rotation, and varies a fair bit. The last maximum was in 2000, and the next one is predicted to be a bit later than usual, hitting in late 2012 or 2013. So for the next few years, chances of the Earth getting hit by a flare are greater than usual, because the sun is going through an active phase. But the sun is ALWAYS throwing off flares, and at any time, one of them could hit the Earth. There is no magical "2013" date. The next giant flare could hit today. Or it could hit in 150 years. There's no way to say.
Here's a chart of the largest recorded solar flares:
http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html
As you can see, one of the largest flares of all time actually happened in 2005, and another very large one in 2006, right around the minimum of the current solar cycle. So very large flares can happen at any time. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to say it could happen "as early as 2013".
Angel, pics as requested
Wow... Stunning. Absolutely beautiful!!!! :clap: :good: :star:
Sinc...
Sinc, do you think that the solar flares could somehow affect the earth and be related to causing the earthquakes that have been happening lately??
Sinc...
"Somehow affect the Earth", yes. Cause yesterday's earthquake, no, but I'm sure some people on the Internet will say so... 😉
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=343