Are those conclusions California specific? I wonder if they looked at Spain and Italy numbers for a comparative analysis.?ÿ
They don't have that many flu deaths every year, do they?
A quick search finds numbers 13k dead in NYC attributed to COVID?ÿ and ~2k flu and pneumonia deaths in 2018.
@flga
As amazing as it may seem, I don't believe seroprevalence tests are being done much of anywhere. The two in California are apparently the only ones in the country so far published, as far as Spain, Italy, New York if I understand what I've read they haven't been done. Of course I'm getting this info off the internet so it must be correct.
One thing I will speak to is the statisticians criticizing the studies: Get your butt off your office chair, get out in the field and do your own study, publish your findings, if ever there was a time to step up and do some work in your field it's now!!!!
Thankfully, we're not as bad as New York. According to the state health department, we've performed 83,331 tests and found 6,951 positives for a positive rate of 8.3%. We have had 213 deaths. We still have 7 of 100 counties without a confirmed case.
The Butner medium security federal prison, home of Bernie Madoff, north of Raleigh has 53 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. 28 of the cases are inmates and 25 are staff. State prisons are also under seige as are nursing homes.
There's some pressure to reopen the state, along with some demonstrations. What's essential and what's not is confusing. i can buy prescription dog food from my vet, and a bottle of booze at the liquor store, but I can't take the dogs to the groomer nor can I get a haircut.
It's the sixties all over again; loaded and unkempt.
A concern with the statistics is that COVID-19 is being used as the default cause of death if there is any question whatsoever.?ÿ That was why the number in NYC jumped by 4000 in one day.?ÿ The were holding off from labeling a death, by say heart attack, if the patient tested positive and suddenly lumping the vast majority of those cases into the pandemic count.
We'll never know. The Washington Post said today that two people in Santa Clara County, California died from covid-19 in early and mid-February. And those people had no travel history, so it's likely that their cases were community-spread.
The history of this disease might be revised many times over the next decade. Great fuel for Ph.D. candidates and publication-starved professors, but pretty bad for the rest of us.
Two new infection rate studies done in California:
There is criticism of the Stanford study's statistical methods used to reach their conclusions. There is serious uncertainty about the false positive rate of the test, such that it might give a similar result even if no one was exposed.
Also, fears that self-selection may have led more people to volunteer who had reason to think they had exposure so that even if the test were perfect the result might not be representative of the population.
Then the way they adjusted their sample of people to try to represent the general population's gender, race, and home location (but they didn't adjust for age?) would increase the variability of the percentages.
Stay at home in Utah order, but not mandatory. A lot of business shut down manditory. I been tested, negative two weeks ago.
I??ve had walking pneumonia all winter. 4 runs of anti-biotics and two lung cat scans.?ÿ Think I??m clear, doctor says next time I get intravenous antibiotic.?ÿ Got a sore throat I just can??t shake.?ÿ Utah doing a lot of testing, if you have one symptom you can get a test.
I??m scared as heck to go out around other people.?ÿ This virous will probably kill me. I been to one store in the last month, auto parts for oil, early on.?ÿ Wife goes to Wal-Mart which I don??t like.?ÿ I stay in truck in parking lot, most people just acting normal.?ÿ Kids doing a lot of shopping for us.?ÿ I been doing field work, can do that in rural area without close contact to others.
I finally decided I would be willing to die other than not seeing my kids and grandkids this late in life.?ÿ Family being very careful.
I put in a GRAMMA request to the recorders office to get all the pdf files they have for plats. tax maps, subdivisions, abstracts, etc., about 200 GB that could be copied to a flash drive in a few minutes.?ÿ Denied unless I pay the copy fee of about $2 each.?ÿ ?ÿI??ve tried to appeal but so far it hasn??t even been acknowledged.?ÿ Pretty sure it will be denied.?ÿ They??d chuck me under the bus and have no problem if the virus killed me from going into the recorder??s office, got to collect their fees.?ÿ My county is so broke they can??t spend the night.They themselves walled of with plexiglas I've been told as I've not been there for a couple months.?ÿ I??m sort of paralyzed as far as research.?ÿ They will email plats for 2-4 dollars each, deeds also if on the computer back to about 1990.?ÿ I can??t identify older deeds I need without access to the abstract files, some scanned already.?ÿ It would be hard to tell them what you needed.
Other than take it to court I might just buy all these files and offer them for free online. It would be cheaper than going to court.?ÿ Start small, ask people to donate or forward any file to me they need to buy that we didn't have. The recorder will lose fees over time until they do put stuff online.?ÿ I have a lot of files already purchased over the last 20 years.
I just finished up remolding my home office about when this started, goog luck on that one.?ÿ Working at home other than field work just normal.
@ridge keep your chin up. and keep working. Once this passes so many things will change for the better.
$2 a copy! Holy .....
In my 25 years in the Portland area I've been to the deed room 4 or 5 times. And that is 4 or 5 times more than anybody else I know in this business. We get our deeds by calling a title company and asking for the current vesting deed, or for specific documents. No charge. Occasionally, if we ask for a large volume of documents, they will charge an hourly research rate. Many of the companies have a dedicated email address to send the requests to. Some have web pages for the purpose. These days I usually get a response within an hou or so of makingthe request.
When in Oklahoma I was expected to go to deed rooms often, and usually welcomed the opportunity to get out of the office and see some countryside. But I was also able to get a few documents over the phone, from title companies.
My suggestion to you is to make a contact with local title companies. They have more records on line that your county recorder does. Maybe they would charge you something, maybe not. But it would save you a lot of time and trips.
@mark-mayer I agree, I tack on 200-300 dollars for nearly all surveys and have a title company run information reports. That gets me deeds and all easements; emailed in a nice pdf format.
I would rather be sick than broke. I would rather be dead than suffer the greatest global depression the world has ever known. I'm in the vulnerable 60 and over age group (barely) and I would sacrifice myself without hesitation if it meant national economic recovery. For God's sake keep the young and strong working.?ÿ
ran a errand in town this afternoon with my 9 yr old son. We swung by taco del sol- owned by a family friend, ?ÿto see there was any signage about a re-opening- they had just shut down thru this- anyway he says? *classmate* is soooo lucky ??
me- ??why is that?
SO- ??her mom owns a taco restaurant!!!!?
There have been other times in our history when the entire population has been required to stop what they were doing - unless it was deemed absolutely essential - and set to a task, that while absolutely necessary, was completely unproductive.?ÿ The last time was 1939-45.?ÿ First, Americans waited a little too long before getting on with it. Then, a large part of the population was tasked with building stuff that's primary purpose was to kill people and break all their stuff.?ÿ Meanwhile, another large part was set to using that stuff to it's fullest potential.?ÿ Which they did, very effectively.?ÿ Necessary at the time, but not productive. When enough people were dead, when enough stuff had been broken, the enemy was no longer a threat. The final blow was a technological miracle.?ÿ It was time to begin picking up the pieces. That took some time, but not as long as was originally feared.?ÿ?ÿ
I suppose we would all feel better if we could fight our current enemy by getting to work building tanks, planes, ships and guns. But this is a different kind of enemy, one that needs to be fought in a different way. It could be just as deadly, if we try to meet it with appeasement. The final blow will come with a vaccine. Only then will we be able to begin getting back to normal. At that point there will be a lot of pent up demand. Be ready for it.?ÿ?ÿ
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My own analysis reveals that UK, Spain France and Italy have slightly higher infections per capita than US. The media assumes there is some medical reason, but any surveyor can see that in EU, they are telling the population to stay 2 METERS apart when we are staying 6 feet apart, which proves that feet are better than meters.
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