Imagine out in the woods there are three makeshift doors, door no. 1, door no. 2, and door no. 3.
Behind two of the doors are goat stakes and behind one of them is a beautifully chiseled stone section corner with nearby BTs sufficiently obvious for even the most particular cadastral surveyor (if it is in a paved road the A.C. over it has already been neatly sawcut and removed).
The Surveyor-contestant picks Door No. 1 but it is not opened yet. Monty Hall opens Door No. 3 revealing a goat stake and he offers the Surveyor-contestant the choice of staying with Door No. 1 or switching to Door No. 2.
Which choice offers the better probability of opening the door with the stone corner?
switch!
Yup, that's a fifty-fifty chance. The first was a one-third/two thirds chance.
I am opening all the doors till I find the corner, and Monty Hall can hold the shovel.
But are you trading for the box Jay is bring down the aisle.....which contains 50 years of usage and reliance on one of the goat stakes?
I don't comprehend your paradigm.
I wad up, with ambition, and slow thought. I go find them ALL, as well as a few stray traverse nails, and I found that the WT tags had fallen off the trees, and someone had switched them, and tacked them BACK on the trees, which led to a misleading hole, 20" dia, and 2' deep, with another rebar in it. On the side of the asphalt. Also, 2 local surveyors had used a nail, that was fd 2" deep in the asphalt, (was on the surface, before the last lay of asphalt) This nail was in C/L at the time, (found yellow C/L paint) and in the projection of old fence remains to east.
Say, Where is KM?
N
James Fleming, post: 449469, member: 136 wrote: But are you trading for the box Jay is bring down the aisle.....which contains 50 years of usage and reliance on one of the goat stakes?
Since the section corner is sufficiently obvious then the property owners aren't uncertain so reliance on the goat stake would represent a parol transfer of title which is illegal except under carefully specified circumstances. Depending on the State, the goat stake could represent claim of right Adverse Possession or even color of title adverse possession if an updated description calling for the goat stake was recorded on the claimant property at some point.
Nate The Surveyor, post: 449470, member: 291 wrote: Say, Where is KM?
I assume his feelings are still hurt.
Nate The Surveyor, post: 449470, member: 291 wrote: Say, Where is KM?
Probably busy outfitting his new Fold-It cart.
[USER=556]@gschrock[/USER] is 100% right.
Dave Karoly, post: 449473, member: 94 wrote: Since the section corner is sufficiently obvious then the property owners aren't uncertain so reliance on the goat stake would represent a parol transfer of title which is illegal except under carefully specified circumstances. Depending on the State, the goat stake could represent claim of right Adverse Possession or even color of title adverse possession if an updated description calling for the goat stake was recorded on the claimant property at some point.
All that ain't going to fit in the box
Contestant #2 come on down to play for Door #1 so Contestant #1 can play for Door #2 and have a chance to trade for Door #3.
Holy Cow, post: 449465, member: 50 wrote: Yup, that's a fifty-fifty chance. The first was a one-third/two thirds chance
Not quite. The odds improve more than that.
You had 1/3 chance of picking the winning door. If you you stick with your choice you still have 1/3 chance of winning as Monte shows you either of the other (losing) doors.
If you picked a wrong door, which would happen 2/3 of the time, Monte will show you the other wrong door. Switching will give you the winning door. Thus you win 2/3 of the time by switching.
I'll take whichever door the lovely and talented Carol Merrill is pointing at.
[USER=87]@Bill93[/USER] has it right. The initial pick is wrong 2/3 of the time and Monte's subsequent offer does not change that.
Dave asked which choice has the better chance of opening the desirable door and the answer is to switch. But, if you were faced with the choice, which would you choose? If 99 surveyors play the game and all stand pat, 33 of them will open the desirable door. If 99 surveyors play the game and all switch, 66 of them will open the desirable door. Thus, there are winners and losers in both groups. There are just more winners in the second group.
So, what would you do? Would you play the percentages or follow a hunch? Inside straights are sometimes filled and a pair of deuces can win a pot. Probability is a great guide, but you have to look Monte squarely In the eye in order to know what to do.
I'll take "Completely Insane" for $500, Alex.
Nate The Surveyor, post: 449470, member: 291 wrote: Say, Where is KM
He is on sabbatical studying for the CFeds exam.
While Monty can show you a non-winning door, that has no effect on whether or not your door is the winner. No matter what door you select he always has a non-winning door to show you. Once he eliminates one, there are two left. One is a winner while the other is not, In effect you always have a fifty-fifty chance because he will always show you a non-winner just to make the show more interesting and give you a second chance guess.
An easy way to see the probabilities is to play the game. Here is one simulator (there are many others) that can generate lots of plays in a short time period. The Monte Hall problem is a staple in probability lessons because it is an example of a game that has two possible outcomes with unequal probabilities.
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/
MathTeacher, post: 449633, member: 7674 wrote: An easy way to see the probabilities is to play the game. Here is one simulator (there are many others) that can generate lots of plays in a short time period. The Monte Hall problem is a staple in probability lessons because it is an example of a game that has two possible outcomes with unequal probabilities.
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/
Thumbs up for the link.
Bookmarked for a rainy day.
