Staffing

Yes, it's a trend. Labor supply vs. demand is tight across the board, from unskilled through highly skilled positions. The trend will reverse when we have our next economic recession.

I think that you may have missed my point. Is the reversal happening now?

We definitely saw a slowdown over the past few months, but it was regional in nature, and seemed to be mostly confined to one or two industry sectors, particularly land development. Still, it seemed like employers were getting a little nervous heading into spring.

Such a big chunk of our profession is tied to land development that it has an outsize impact on how we perceive things...infrastructure, energy, renewables, transportation, etc. still seems to be going strong.

Ah yes, I did miss your point. No, I don't think we are sliding into recession just yet. I suspect that the influx of candidates is a response to the current inflation rates, and lack of corresponding raises on the part of employers. The best way to get a substantial raise is to leave your current job, and take a new one.

"I think that you may have missed my point. Is the reversal happening now?"

Yes, we have been in a recession for about a year now. The housing market lags a bit because projects are long term and the housing market is tight. However, things like lot surveys have been steadily declining.

The undercutters are still busy, but not as many customers are shunted off to the quality shops. So, you will get some trimming of the staff. Add to that the pressure on wages, and the budgets demand leaning out staffing.

Technically, there has to be a contraction for a recession, but with inflation compounding in double digits for a while there, the economy would need to be 30% larger than 2022 for us to not be in a recession.

Again, we have been insulated because of the tight housing market. The interest rates might be helping a bit, since people aren't selling (basically free money...why pay it back?) and so there is no inventory.

"infrastructure, energy, renewables, transportation, etc. still seems to be going strong."

This spending stays during recessions.

One thing that generally cycles differently than residential around here has been commercial office space, but I do not see commercial offices being hot again for a long time.

Having suffered the highs and lows of land development boom and bust over the years, I keep expecting cycles of surveyor jobs crashing.

Here in New Zealand there has been a significant fall in new buildings being permitted, which would usually indicate the start of another bust.

But so far that does not seem to be the case.

In fact one local firm is so desperate for staff they are offering a sign-on bonus of nzd$5000 for new staff sought in three of their offices. I have never seen that here before.

From personal experience... Probably. Maybe.

My hours got reduced to 0 about 2 weeks ago, and I got told it would last for 2-3 months.

Speaking of which... any of ya'll want a remote employee?