All of the changes from our normal way of life will have quite an effect on various statistical reports in the future.?ÿ Maybe they will give 2020 an asterisk in the record books.?ÿ A simple example would be the number of high school graduates being handed their diploma at the standard ceremony with hundreds or thousands in attendance.?ÿ In our case, that number will be zero.
Think of all the auto accidents that will not occur today because so many people will not be out driving as usual.?ÿ It will be interesting to see if house invasions take a dip as well since so many will be in those houses unlike the normal case.?ÿ Fewer forest fires should get started if no one is camping in them.?ÿ All sorts of cruise ship and casino stats will be impacted.
On the gloomier side of things, domestic violence incidents will probably increase.
To the Moon, Alice.
Hospitalizations may or may not be up. Elective surgeries canceled may offset Covid-19 admissions. As of yesterday, NC has 12 Covid-19 hospital admissions and I suspect that far more than 12 elective surgeries have been canceled. In New York, though, it's likely very different.
The dip in GDP and the bump in unemployment followed by (hopefully) sharp recovery in both might need explaining. Today's local paper says that domestic violence police calls are indeed up. On the other hand, some restaurant closures may lead to less domestic abuse of household plumbing.
We might need more than one asterisk along with bunch of numbers for footnotes.
My wife registers patients for outpatient surgery. They have stopped everything elective but they are running out of room. Everything available is being converted to quarantine or critical care.
Our entire State only has 77 confirmed cases, but that is a horribly misleading number. As the test results from last week roll in it's going to look like the spread is accelerating out of control.
My .02, Tom
No doubt this period will form a baseline for comparison in studies for many years to come.
It will be interesting to see if house invasions take a dip as well since so many will be in those houses unlike the normal case.?ÿ
You are thinking of burglaries. Home invasions occur when the occupants are at home.
As the test results from last week roll in it's going to look like the spread is accelerating out of control.?ÿ
If the numbers do not peak by the week after next then the isolation isn't working.?ÿ?ÿ
I must disagree. It is my understanding that isolation is intended to slow down and prolong the rise to the peak of the bell curve so that the top of the bell curve never gets above the threshold of what our health system can handle. I have yet seen anything that indicates just how long the models predict that to take.
Lord bless your wife and everybody else in healthcare.?ÿ
The lag in the numbers vs the infected is huge. As of yesterday, according to the surgeon general, positive tests were still running at about 10% of total tests. I looked at the CDC flu numbers and about 20% of all flu tests from last fall to "recently" were positive. And, as @holy-cow has said, the A-type, H1N1, is the overwhelmingly prevalent one.
Making data-driven decisions in this environment is going to be tough. Our state department of health and human services updates its number of positive tests every day sometime before 11 am. Today, their number is 398. But that's just positive tests; our first one was on 3/3, so some of those early ones should be resolved by now, but there are many, many more waiting in the wings to take their place. Trying to judge the number of active cases a week from now is going to require as much art as mathematics, but the UNC epidemiologist's quick number of 4000 for NC by April 2 looks believable.
My stock purchase of a week ago is down more than 20% after this morning's boost. So much for timing the market; the car I bought a year and a half ago hasn't done much worse.
?ÿ
?ÿ
Here's a website that compares the curves (by state) and gives an approximate timeline. I have no idea as to where this data originated.
You, and your curves, may well be right. Nevertheless I stand by my statement. Perhaps my meaning is being misinterpreted?
I would say the opposite is true. The idea is to slow the progression to avoid exceeding capacity for critical care. If it peaks in two weeks we didn't accomplish anything.
Isolation can no longer prevent community spread. It can only slow it to a hopefully manageable pace. My daughter is in Saigon and it is working very well there. Of course the government there has tools not available here, and the citizenry falls in line more readily. Crappy way to live but very handy in a crisis..
In theory, if isolation quarantine?ÿ was conducted perfectly no new cases would be possible after 14-21 days.?ÿ Unfortunately, essential workers, necessary travel for food, etc.,?ÿ and most notably scofflaws make that impossible.?ÿ I read that last weekend tens of thousands of (mostly young) people flocked to the beaches in San Diego for a day of fun in the sun, which forced authorities to close all beaches, bays, lakes, boardwalks, parks and trails.?ÿ This was after a near complete shutdown of restaurants, casinos, theaters, government offices, etc. last week.
If we don't see a significant downturn in new cases by mid-April the "statistics" will become dire.?ÿ
Certainly, the graph represents the concept. There are no numbers on the graph so, as you pointed out, there's no real way to know either the peak number of cases or the time at which it will occur. It's possible that the curve is flattened but its peak still exceeds hospital capacity. We could succeed in flattening the curve but still have more sick people than we can care for.
The NC governor closed restaurants at 5 pm on 3/17, one week ago. The majority of infections reported every day since then were likely already in the pipeline when the restaurants were closed, although incubation times are highly variable. Thus, any positive effect of closing restaurants is yet to be seen. We'll never really know, though, what the positive benefit is because we won't see the results that not closing the restaurants would have created. Undoubtedly, a year from now, there will be studies that confirm his action and other studies that condemn it.
Prospective epidemic modeling is best left to experts. For us lay people, one crude clue to an approaching peak is seeing the percentage increase in new cases decrease for several days in a row, where several means maybe eight or ten days. Then we want to see it turn negative for several days, where several might be four or five.
It's a real case of decision-making under uncertainty.
Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif (1360??816)
?fbclid=IwAR3EVVAbg_8zOOaRgrkza1cF0oQ9CH81CGAVXinZPPm7N6tk4-xc28HZ8jc
Math works. Follow the game plan.
I do have concern about death to the elderly after all this hopefully subsides. The stress that the elderly are feeling now will have effects many months from now on their health. So non Covid 19 deaths will mount in the future. I'm not being emotional about this but factual.
Official Katrina death count was 2000. Independent university studies afterwards put the number at 10,000. This was including elderly that were displaced and were put under severe stress post-katrina. I see the stress on elderly people now. But I think they're drinking more so that may be beneficial.
In FL we are still in Social Distancing phase. Even our?ÿGovernor stated Lockdown in FL won't work. And he is correct.?ÿ
That being said, the majority of people are voluntarily self quarantining regardless of mandates. Have no idea what's in store for us.
In montana we are Social distancing also... ?ÿ * puts down AR-15, picks up .300WM
Before anyone gets in a panic over the state models that were posted, you might want to read a different opinion:
Only time will tell.
James
?ÿ
Before anyone gets in a panic over the state models that were posted, you might want to read a different opinion:
The site the article criticizes has graphics that convey an important concept.?ÿ Pointing out problems with the actual numbers and dates on that site is good reporting by the article. I don't think leaders are relying only on that site for their data, but are using the graphic as an illustration of the concept.
Attributing motives to others is not good reporting by the article.
That's as political as I'll get about a very political article.
