I have been planning on upgrading and/or replacing my non-glonass GPS systems and was spending some time browsing about the new L5 signal when I came across this article;
http://www.gpsworld.com/survey/whats-going-happen-when-high-accuracy-gps-cheap-10024
If this article is accurate and in the next five years we could buy a survey grade GPS system for less than $1000.00 what would be the incentive of spending the megabucks for a new system in the next four years. I think with proper maintenance and maybe the occasional repair I can easily keep my systems working four more years.
If in five years a new system could be bought for less than $1000.00 the maximum value of any existing system would not be equal to or greater than the cost of a new system making anything bought in the next four or five years practically worthless.
You don't hear anything about this from Leica, Trimble or Topcon and I was just wondering about the opinion of the surveyor community.
My thoughts exactly. I plan on holding off on purchases like this as long as possible. There are way too many new constellations and signals coming online. I can pay top dollar now for a system that is supposedly upgradeable to work with future systems in 5 years... but why? You know just like computers, in 5 years the manufacturers will have a whole new line of receivers that do everything faster, smaller and cheaper. They are also going to improve the receivers based on whatever the heck they didn't know beforehand. The Air Force is even improving the GPS constellation configuration right now, which helps all of us, free of charge. It gives me even more encouragement to wait as long as possible.
GPS world is a far better resource for "keeping your ear to the ground" on GNSS technology than any of the surveying magazines. You are exactly right, I wouldn't purchase anything for a while if you can get by with what you have now.
We as surveyors, no matter what you like to call it, work in a geospatial profession. We are used to technology being doled out at a snails pace. Once in a while that great game changer comes along, but for the most part we deal with technological evolution, not revolution. A lot of this is about to change for us. I think the surveying profession is going to be greatly impacted by cell phone & video gaming technology.
The consumer & business markets are seeing more and more applications for georeferenced data. I once read in GPS world where the $3 GNSS chip in cell phones will be capable of real-time decimeter accuracy with the advent of L5. Furthermore, have you seen what some people are getting the Microsoft Kinect to do?
I can envision a not-to-distant future where one can don a pair of augmented reality glasses and play a video game by walking around your neighborhood and shooting the bad guys that jump out from behind cars, walls, etc. The technology exists now, it's just a matter of getting it cheaper & streamlined. When this happens, how far behind is a day when someone can walk around and "see" a BIM model?
My point is that the R&D for the technology used by our profession was funded by us - through sales - and a few other professions; now we will benefit from R&D being funded by the masses.
While attending a Trimble seminar recently, I was itching to tackfully ask a question
about the international politics of GPS. Fortunately, he discussed the advantage of
GLONASS. He was profoundly silent about the current DOD system. He was very upbeat about the Chinese system.
GLONASS is nice, but bear in mind the only correction stations are in Russia.
L5 is currently on one satellite though and not working great, how long really until a good amount of L5 broadcasting satellites are up for broad usage?
One important note
In order to take advantage of the opportunities I mentioned above, you have to expand your knowledgebase. There’s no choice. It's either that or you're bagging groceries at Walmart. Technology is changing and its forcing changes in your business, so you must adapt to those changes. Recently, I wrote about a technical session at the ACSM/GITA conference I attended called the Surveying Body of Knowledge (SBoK). Although I may have some differences with some of the SBoK committee member’s intentions, the concept is right. SBoK does a good job of defining the different disciplines in which surveyors can diversify. Briefly, the five areas are:
1. Positioning (field data collection)
2. Imaging (photogrammetry/remote sensing/3D scanners/LiDAR/)
3. GIS (mapping/cartography)
4. Law (boundary/real property/business law)
5. Land development (construction/planning/development)
The idea is that if one discipline is weak, such as positioning, in the current economy, then you could shift your business in another direction where you are qualified, such as GIS or imaging. You certainly don’t need to be qualified in all five disciplines, but having three or four in your pocket gives you a lot of flexibility when the economy is as weak as it is now.
This sounds like something I've preaching over the last few weeks. Thank you for posting the link.:good:
Ralph
Rob ,
In reality today's purchased electronic technology should be written off in under 5 years.
You also have the problem of spare parts and repairs these days hanging on with plus 5 year old electronic equipment as manufacturers keep up with technology and new systems.
Amount of spares depends on production numbers of item.
I would suggest that a problem in surveying is that many business owners do not add the rapid depreciation rate into job charge out as a real recoverable cost.
RADU
All of this future stuff is very intertesting, but I need to improve our RTK performance now, so I've just ordered a GPS/Glonass RTK set-up to improve our reception in areas heavily infected with trees and buildings.
I cannot wait 5 years to save money. I'll lose more money with poor reception and lost signals than I ever will by buying two units now. Just seems like a reasonable business decision to me.
I guess I'll be the only business minded one in the group. What are your opportunity costs for either new markets, or speeding up surveys? Sure, you could wait, and still keep on keeping on, but how much better would your "quality of life" be with GPS?
30k is a lot, but if it pays for itself in a year, then sounds like you're all good.
Now if you live in non-gps conducive territory, it may be worth it to wait.
Cost-benefit analysis specific to your business market and terrain is requisite in my opinion and not one that any of us can tell you.
FWIW, I practice in the "piney woods" of East Texas and we are able to use ours quite a bit. It's made us lots of money and kept contracts (and gotten new ones) that we wouldn't have been able to service otherwise.
It's just another tool that allows you to expand your horizons.
I didn't mean to suggest that I was considering buying GPS for the first time, I have owned RTK systems since 1996 and over the last 15 years have billed out a substantial amount with them so you are preaching to the choir about the value of GPS. My question is where do you draw the line investing in old technology. The current GPS system and equipment will be obsolete somewhere in the next 4 to 9 years so if you are buying now you are investing near the tailend of a 25 year technology cycle. Would it be better to increase the life of your current system instead of buying new with the prospect of it being worthless in four years. If you think it is best to buy now would you have the same opinion if you had 3 years or 2 years until the next technology cycle?
Robert
Then that changes things a little. Personally, as we have also been running RTK and GPS since 1995, and we currently have a circa 2000 Trimble 5700 RTK system, circa 2006 Trimble R8 GNSS system, and outdated circa Pro XRS system and a GEO-XT system circa 2006, I'm not looking to buy right now either. However, I might be inclined to look at VRS, if one was near ANY of my projects.
I've gotten 11 years out of my 5700, and hopefully will get a few more. Also, I expect to get another 5 to 7 years out of my R8 as well. To that end, if you have some, all or any of the gear mentioned above, I probably wouldn't upgrade either.
The whole concept that by owning a chain and a transit makes you the local measurement guru (and able to profit from it) is totally gone. I'd just scratch that item off the list. It's the other knowledge that will go forward. Anybody will soon by able to make precise measurements. It's knowing what they mean and what to do with the measurements that counts. Also the law and being able to handle the liability. Knowing what to measure from is the important thing not the measurement.
So I agree with Ralph.
Robert
I am basically in the same boat, I have two networked non glosnass Leica 1200's (circa 2005) with a Leica 1200 Pro permanent base in the Leica network, a Trimble 4700/4000 RTK (1998), and a pile of old Trimble 4000's that I use for static and the occasional base for the Leica 1200. I know this equipment is getting old but I am pretty sure I can get by for at least 5 more years.
I could spent about 30K and upgrade the Leica to glosnass and L5 but I would still have over five year old equipment. If I replace it all I am looking at at lot of money so I think for me the best thing to do is wait and see. My Trimble 4000's are 15 years old and I would not have a problem comparing the static solutions from them to any unit manufactured today and even the 4700 is fast enough to use in a lot of applications.
Robert
Kris, what are you using the GEO-XT for? Your "property line cutting business" or are you using it for municipality GIS type work?
We have been thinking of purchasing something along those lines.
What makes us
> the local measurement guru (and able to profit from it)
has nothing to do with our tools. It has to do with how we use them.
(And these new GPS abilities might be much scarier for a surveyor in Texas with open skies and huge tracts, than it is for a guy in the Pacific NW, where most lots cannot see enough sky to even see GPS.)
But let's remember something, any 8th grader that paid attention in math class could rent a total station and make the same measurements we do, wouldn't even need a data collector. So, the issue of cheap measurements may not be as critical as we might think.
This will change somethings, but in the end, just like today, anyone can measure something. If you want it measured right...
> The current GPS system and equipment will be obsolete somewhere in the next 4 to 9 years so if you are buying now you are investing near the tailend of a 25 year technology cycle.
We should remember that the current crop of high end receivers take into account the technology that is coming. If you are worried about being left behind by the tech, buy a receiver that is actually able, and currently is, tracking the new signals.
It takes a decade or more for a technology to actually be implemented into the constellation, and that is AFTER the tech is developed, approved, and given the green light.
Topcon, Javad, Trimble, whoever...they are NOT surprised by these things, and if you buy their top of the line products, they are ready to be upgraded via software when the signals become available.
In fact, most of these signals are CURRENTLY being transmitted, and people like Javad advertise every time one is brought on line, because their hardware and software can receive it and track it. (You just have to pay for it...refer to Kris' post.)
Yes, the costs will drop, so Kris' ROI speech is very important, but you really shouldn't stress about buying something that will be worthless in a year, unless you are buying technology that is really 20 years old.
> GPS world is a far better resource for "keeping your ear to the ground" on GNSS technology than any of the surveying magazines
YEP!!!
>
> GPS world where the $3 GNSS chip in cell phones will be capable of real-time decimeter accuracy with the advent of L5.
I like the articles that demonstrate that single frequency chips costing pennies actually OUTPERFORMS survey grade equipment in urban canyons, etc. when using the same antenna. Of course, as we all know, if we are off 1 meter might as well be 100 meters for most of what we do, and that isn't true for a cell phone...so it isn't apple to apples, but it is interesting.
Rob
We use them for a myriad of uses. First and foremost, we map nearly every creek with it. The Pro XRS was better in the woods, but for a meander line in a natural boundary, they are impossible to beat.
Other than that, we do some GIS work for pipeline companies and it's great there as well.
Our bread and butter with it is we "soft stake" well locations with it. This allows a quick look at the approximate position of the well, and time to work out the logistics with the company man (i.e. well pad orientation, what-if analysis, etc.).
I used the PRO-XRS for two years every day on the back of a 4 wheeler mapping pipelines for one of our clients in 4 counties. That project alone paid for all of my GPS gear, including my real-time equipment. They got spatial maps of their pipelines and I now hate riding 4 wheelers. 🙂
You have to think outside the box to really get the most bang for your buck out of it. The newer version is MUCH MORE USER FRIENDLY than mine is.