Okay, so maybe the planetary K index of fluctuations in the magnetic field that is associated with a highly variable ionosphere and problematic GPSing isn't nearly quite so entertaining. Here's the Kp index showing a massive spike as the coronal mass ejection on the Sun hits Earth.
SCINTILATING
Yes, scintillation indeed. It probably isn't much of a problem over short baselines, but I'm still glad not to be GPSing for a few days.
We have been in a relatively quite period of solar activity. I am not certain that the brainiacs undertand solar cycles but they are cycical. We are on an uptrend.....
we are moving closer to the sun and over time solar activity will increase and I question the wisdom of NGS to stop reliance upon passive marks.....
so far so bad....
Kent,
Take the day off and look for the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)tonight. Oh, my bad! You live in Texas, sorry. 🙂
> SCINTILATING
I find it titillating myself.
I saw nothing last night, I'll try again tonight.
As I said earlier, you could (just barely) see the Aurora Borealis at 28 degrees back in the late 80s when this happened before.
:coffee:
We have some idea of when the event is most likely to take place, according to NASA it is said that the earth will be hit by 4 waves of plasma: one late on Tuesday night, or early Wednesday morning around 3am (EST), the next is estimated to occur sometime around noon to 1pm on Wednesday, the third will hit sometime around 8pm Wednesday evening, and the fourth will hit on Thursday at 2am. However, given that the waves are not moving in a perfect uniform manner it is difficult to pinpoint the exact time these events will occur.
Though the solar activity is happening earlier than previously anticipated, the coming solar storm in 2013 is expected to be far more dramatic, making whatever may occur during this event seem to be but a shadow of things to come.
Live Naked Kp Index On Stage Right Now !-Dane
Quiet is a relative term. You can have a large flare in the lowest point of the 10.7 year cycle. We entered cycle 24 (the current) sometime in 2008 and the expected high point on the graph (most predicted activity) will occur around mid 2013.
The most activity does not necessarily mean the largest CME. Just a lot more CME's. They are predicting this cycle to not be as severe as the cycle 23. Again, like predicting the hurricane season then this is just based on the best available information and trends. Surprises can and will happen.
The halo CME will impact some electronics until possibly even Aug.6th. I downloaded the cors data this morning from Fairbanks, Alaska. About 6 hours and the RMS was nearly 8 instead of the normal 3 or less. This would mean, to me, that the data is noisy and will be problematic for longer baselines, such as OPUS. I will send in the file this morning and see if OPUS pukes or gives some bad statistics on the session.
My personal view on the CME's based on many years of having to contend with them is that some of the biggest ones occur well away from the peak. I think during the quiet time that some just build up and release violently then the sun lays back down again. The peak years have a lot of activity but not as violent. By violent then I refer to the ones that bring down power grids and damage satellites.
Deral
Four waves of plasma! Should we stand on a hilltop and wait on the Nexus. Maybe I'll get to finally meet James T. Kirk.. 🙂
Live Naked Kp Index On Stage Right Now !-Dane
>10.7 year cycle
Experts keep referring to that cycle, when they will admit the magnetic polarity of events on the sun reverses from "cycle" to "cycle". That means the true underlying cycle of whatever drives it is really 21.4 years. The usual plot you see is more like the absolute value of a sine wave so it peaks twice as often. It would seem that they should be looking at 21.4 as a basis for analysis.
> Take the day off and look for the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)tonight. Oh, my bad! You live in Texas, sorry. 🙂
Man, it sounds as if you Mainers have a tenuous work ethic if you want to take the day off and stare at the sky. :>
I sure hope Moistner has all his camera equipment assuming he is still way up north.
Daryl is still up north at least until this friday from his last contact. I hope he got some photos. Maybe when he gets back to Oregon this weekend he will share some of them if he did indeed snap a few shots.
I cannot imagine him not with the opportunity as long as the sky was clear. He's a monster on the camera.
Quick question....
Last night at about 3 am we had the most intense lightning storm I have ever seen. I would estimate that I was observing about 10 bolts per second. There were essentially no times during a one hour period where lightning was not visible. Our power went out at the beginning of this event.
When I look at the information posted here, it seems that there may be a correlation between the solar activity, and the incredible lightning we saw. I have no other explanation for the very abnormal storm we saw last night.
John Evers
No John. What you experienced was from the troposphere and below. I doubt the iono had anything to do with it.
Like our Oklahoma boomers. They are from the clouds in the lower parts of the atmosphere.
Moisture, disturbances and wind patterns. Just normal stuff.
Deral
> When I look at the information posted here, it seems that there may be a correlation between the solar activity, and the incredible lightning we saw. I have no other explanation for the very abnormal storm we saw last night.
I'd probably suspect hotter than usual temperatures in the case you describe. Unless you're in the bone-dry desert, the hotter daytime temps translate into more intense convection cells and greater potential for thunderstorms. In fact, one quick-n-dirty method for taking the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere is by global lightning activity.
Live Naked Kp Index On Stage Right Now !-Kent
You would agree though that higher temps and convections have nothing to do with space weather though would you not.
They are not correlated in the least.
Live Naked Kp Index On Stage Right Now !-Kent
Actually, terrestrial weather is affected by variations in the Sun's total energy output and the space weather is thought to be correlated with that total energy output. So I don't think I'd say that they are completely unrelated.
Live Naked Kp Index On Stage Right Now !-Kent
The impact of the space weather on tera firma is weak at best. A few photons do not influence the convections. They do impact the iono but not the tropo. They just,like others, do not have that big an influence no matter how much they talk about it.
Deral