Anyone nearby who can report accurately about the flooding?
ELLICOTT City
Shout out to Moe Shetty, He was right there in it 2 years ago.
This was from 2 years ago:?ÿ https://surveyorconnect.com/community/general-chit-chat/storm-and-flood-in-ellicott-city-maryland/#post-384284
I checked yesterday and it has been a few months since he posted but hopefully he is good and can give us an update. Not many people witness a thousand year flood, much less two.
Praying for their recovery
James
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Worse than 2011 worse than 2016. The missing Airman's body was found yesterday afternoon.?ÿ
The grief and damage is heavy.
Having had family endure flooding like that (or at least close to that), I can certainly sympathize.?ÿ What got me, watching the television, was NOT the height of the flood but the velocity of the water.?ÿ Incredible.?ÿ Y'all stay safe.
Andy
Here is an article that explains how it got to this point much better that just a reporter on the street. I found it informative.
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A stroll thru town on Google Street view is also very enlightening. Pay attention to the number of buildings that seem to be built over the rock lined drainage channel that parallels the street.
James
A stroll thru town on Google Street view is also very enlightening. Pay attention to the number of buildings that seem to be built over the rock lined drainage channel that parallels the street.
James
I believe it's more of a channelized creek than a drainage channel; the fall line of the drainage area for Tiber Creek is, more or less, the main street going through town.?ÿ This is where it outfalls into the river
https://goo.gl/maps/EzFyEWV62pN2?ÿ (EDIT: link fixed)
Great place to build an 18th century mill town, modern development, not so much?ÿ
And, as you pointed out, it's "Ellicott"...as in Andrew's father an two uncles:
In 1770, his father, together with his uncles Andrew and John, purchased land on the falls of the Patapsco River, upriver and west of Baltimore and the Chesapeake Bay. There they set up a new milling business, founding the town of Ellicott's Mills in 1772 (today's Ellicott City, Maryland).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Ellicott
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The nomenclature of 10-year, 100-year, 1000-year storm to describe events with a 10%, 1%, and .1% chance of occurring in any given year is probably one of the most confusing oversimplifications ever.?ÿ The public in general and a good number of folks who ought to know better believe that a 1000-year storm happens once every thousand years.?ÿ With that follows the thought that....."Well now that we've got that behind us, we can rebuild with impunity".?ÿ Minds are blown when you explain that it is entirely possible to have multiple 1000-year storms in an area in a single year.
Sorry for the rant to the choir.....JaRo's linked story above hit a couple of nerves.?ÿ
The distribution is not intuitive.?ÿ For example, in 10 years with a probability of 0.1 per year, assuming independence, you are almost as likely to have none as to have one, and the probability of two is half as large as for having one.
N ?ÿ ?ÿ?ÿ P(N)
0?ÿ 34.9%
1?ÿ 38.7%
2?ÿ 19.4%
3?ÿ 5.7%
4?ÿ 1.1%
5?ÿ 0.15%
6 0.01%
7 0.008%
8?ÿ 3.6E-7
9?ÿ 9.0E-9
10?ÿ 1.0E-10
There is a 65% chance of having at least one and a 26.4% chance of at least two
I find it fascinating that folks who live there want to rebuild. I've been where I am for 64 years, so I understand having roots, but there has to be some limit. I resent my money being used again and again to try to restore things to what they once were.
I live a few miles from historic Ellicott City. Don't go there very often due to the overwhelming crowds during the summer. Very picturesque, very nice area.
After the 2016 storm, the news showed folks who had businesses there who did not have flood insurance. Obviously lose absolutely everything. I suspect the same happened this time as well.
My gut reaction to those folks is along the lines of "you live/work in a well known flood area and you don't take precautions??" I get it, flood insurance is expensive. But it's their choice. Either get flood insurance or don't live/work there.
Personally, I have specifically chosen to Not live in a known flood zone, nor in Howard County, MD. (I won't get into the specifics of why on the latter at this time)
