Finally looked a bit more at the data I have on hand concerning licenses in Kentucky.?ÿ Disclaimers 1) This is just me as an individual person looking at the available information in a kind of quick and dirty way.?ÿ 2) The data consists of CURRENT licensees in Kentucky.?ÿ So retirements, deaths, disciplinary actions, etc... mean this is not complete data.?ÿ 3) I have not pared licenses issued by comity prior to 2018 because it was not as frequent then, but I did since 2018 due to the huge number of license collectors that show up from 2018 on. Pared meaning took out those licensees that are not in Kentucky or adjacent states because they are much less likely to be active in serving the public here.?ÿ (So, the numbers discussed should be on the pessimistic side).
In different "look back" periods:
Average number of licenses issued (still current):
1980 on = 24
1990 on = 26
2000 on = 26
2010 on = 25
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From 1980 to 2021, there is a range of licenses issued (and still current) from 11 in one year to 42 in another.?ÿ There is a general trend of adding an additional license to the base number every 5 years.?ÿ So, very minor growth shown.?ÿ HOWEVER, this one is the most suspect as I arbitrarily selected 1980 thinking that is 40+ years of being licensed and getting licensed around 25 years old (or this is very close to including a bunch of potential retired licensees).?ÿ Some of the lower numbers fall in the 1980s further indicating there may be more retired from this group.
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From 1990 to 2021, there is a range from 14 in one year to 42 in another.?ÿ The trend line equation shows losing 0.077 licenses each year - or basically a flat line with no growth or loss.?ÿ One interesting item to me is that there is a big spike from 24 licenses in 2000 to 42 licenses in 2001 and back down to 27 in 2002.?ÿ None of these years coincide with degree/experience matters.
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From 2000 to 2021, there is a trend of loosing 0.2575 licenses per year.?ÿ So a little more looking like a decline in numbers.?ÿ This time period has the degree requirement and sun-setting of the experience route right about in the middle (2011).?ÿ The highest number issued (and still current) is still 2001 with 42 licenses - this is 4 years before the degree requirement was enacted and 10 years before the experience route was sun-set.?ÿ In the years since the degree requirement was enacted and before the experience route was removed, the numbers went up as expected.?ÿ So a bunch of people in the pipeline did get in and get their license.?ÿ Before the degree requirement was enacted, there was a study conducted with an expert on the matter brought in to help out.?ÿ The predictions were what would be expected - an increase of licenses in the years leading up to sun-setting the experience route, a lull in the years after as degrees were obtained, and then a slow increase back to normal.
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From 2010 to 2021, there is a trend of losing 1 license per year from the base number.?ÿ This period includes the last 2 years of experience based licensees (raising the numbers) and the ensuing 4-5 year lull that was expected (lowering the numbers).
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From 2015 (4 years after experience route was removed) to 2021, there is an average of 22 licenses issued each year (that are still current) with a trend line indicating adding one license to this base number per year.?ÿ So, potentially a small amount of growth.?ÿ This is a short period for the look back, but if the trend line holds we should be back to 26 or so licenses as the average soon.?ÿ I'm anxious to see how those numbers pan out over the next few years.
For the current year, excluding licenses issued to non-adjacent states, we're at 20 with 2 months to go and supposedly several people lined up to test.
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One take away I had in looking at the data was that in the past 30 to 40 years, there doesn't appear to be ANY consistency in the number of licenses issued (which are still current) in each year.?ÿ The numbers rise and fall in very odd ways even year to year.?ÿ 2018, 2019, 2020, & 2021 were higher in numbers than 10 years of the 2 decades before experience was removed.?ÿ The largest number issued and still current was a year that doesn't seem tied to anything to do with the experience route potentially being removed and was almost double the year before and the year after (while those two years were very close to average).?ÿ One of the lowest years was 6 years before the experience route was removed.
