Activity Feed › Discussion Forums › Strictly Surveying › Elon may have missed the point
-
Ugly as sin. Intrigued by the capabilities, cost, and range.
Of note:
~190,000 preorders in 3 days (I presume these were in the US, but I’m not sure if they’ve opened it worldwide).
Ford sold ~910,000 F-Series in the US in 2018.
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2019/01/12/ford-f-150-super-duty-truck-sales/2557609002/
Presuming that both numbers are US only, getting people to preorder roughly 1/5 of Ford’s yearly USA F-Series production after 1 presentation should be a shot across the bow of the traditional truck manufacturers.
-
I have been following this and those pre-order numbers are for a $100 refundable deposit.
While at first glance it may sound like a huge deal there are more than enough Tesla sycophants living in their parents basements able to pony up one Benjamin to support their idol. The real test is how many of those $100 deposits actually translate into a actual purchase once a truck is actually put into production, if it goes into production.
-
It will be interesting to watch this play out. The Model 3 certainly had its share of start-up problems. Here’s a demographic break-down of Model 3 owners that might be surprising:
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2019/03/tesla-model-3-demographics-income/
North Carolina, my home, surprised me. Here, there’s a law requiring a dealer network for new car sales with a limited exception and Elon has specifically said no dealers. There are two Tesla “stores” here, one for viewing only and one for sales also, in Raleigh and Charlotte, I think.
The no-dealer strategy is going to be tested on the trucks, I think, unless they’re sold for show only. Truck repairs are common in the workaday world, so Tesla’s current business model will be difficult to maintain.
-
Once again, I have followed this extensively and the no dealer network is one of Tesla’s achilles heels, of which there are many.
-
Ha, one of the reasons I liked my 67 was how roomy it was for the driver, it wasn’t a hot-rod, but it did drive nice down the highway, should have kept it. I haven’t sat in the new ones, getting in and out is a big consideration these days.
I don’t know what I’d do with a car, I drive everywhere in a 4×4, when the weather is bad I don’t care much. It would be garaged for months every year.
-
They were roomy. We drive crossovers now, both Fords. The little bit of extra height is a god-send for us. One of my sons has a Silverado and the other a Camry. The truck is too high and the car is too low.
Dang, it’s bad to get old, but thankfully somebody makes something that we can use.
-
I am also not a truck person, but, I would consider a Rivian (just better looking IMHO), but, the towing question remains large. How does towing affect the range of the vehicle? My Treg goes from hwy30 mpg to 17mpg with a wind blocking 5000lb trailer. What is the effect on a EV? As far as I know, it remains to be seen. Does the highest range Cybertruck go from 500 miles to 250 miles? Do you now have a very large battery that even with level 2 charging will be an issue?
-
Posted by: @just-a-surveyor
I have been following this and those pre-order numbers are for a $100 refundable deposit.
While at first glance it may sound like a huge deal there are more than enough Tesla sycophants living in their parents basements able to pony up one Benjamin to support their idol. The real test is how many of those $100 deposits actually translate into a actual purchase once a truck is actually put into production, if it goes into production.
Since we don’t have a lot of historical data for these type of things:
Model 3 cancellations:
My assumption is that unless your pre-order was cancelled, you followed through and purchased.
That being said, the Model 3 was the best selling luxury vehicle in the USA for 2018.
https://www.statista.com/chart/16948/total-number-of-premium-cars-sold-in-the-us/
It seems they are a vehicle that does not fit everyone’s situation; however, they obviously seem to fit a lot of other people’s requirements. I imagine the same is true of the truck. I, personally, would likely only consider one if I had the option for bench seats front and back.
The real test, for all manufacturers, will be what happens as/if sales slow due to lack of demand or a recession.
https://www.autonews.com/sales/8-first-half-sales-tales
-
Agree on the dealers. If you only want to sell in the state where you manufacture, no dealers is ok. But you can’t fix a wreck over the internet and shipping it home to be fixed is inconvenient to say the least.
-
Thanks for the linky. Apparently they’ve compensated for battery pack weight by abandoning the body on frame design and going with a monocoque or unibody design. Clever.
-
@brian-allen
Most pickups (even the 1 ton diesels) are essentially used as commuter rigs around here. We can leave it to the psychologists to figure out why guys need huge trucks to be happy.
-All thoughts my own, except my typos and when I am wrong. -
Oh you know that has been a frequent lament of mine.
-
Elon did not miss any points. He’s not targeting the 1-ton diesel market able to tow 20,000 lbs.
i have a 2WD lightweight pickup, I never tow with it. It serves 99% of my needs. An electric pickup would be ideal but I don’t want another car payment and I don’t have that much cash so I’ll keep driving my 2005 F150 I bought new, it’s paid for.
-
Undoubtedly, he’s done his market homework. His heavy-duty stuff is here: https://www.tesla.com/semi
-
But he is right in the F250 range with payload and towing capacity. That’s going to be a problem for those who believe the specs…
-
Wow it tows 14,000 pounds, I didn’t realize. 3500 pounds in the bed.
Ford had a pickup in the early 60s with the cab and bed joined like that. The problem was loaded the doors couldn’t be opened.
$40k isn’t too bad considering a new F150 can run $45k.
-
Dealers =/= service. As a Tesla owner I can confirm that their service is superb. They also have “mobile rangers” that come to you. I have used them and it is awesome.
-
If it really doesn’t rust I’m in. I don’t care how well it’s built, around here it will rust away within 10 years before anything else has a chance to wear out.
-
The lack of a dealer network is indeed a difficulty for Tesla.
Of course, dealers are one of the biggest headaches for most car manufacturers.
It will be interesting to see which one wins out.
-All thoughts my own, except my typos and when I am wrong.
Log in to reply.