Anybody watch these shows? They just had a 1970 Barracuda that somebody bid $300,000 for and the sellers wouldn't take it, too low. Coo-koo!!
> Anybody watch these shows? They just had a 1970 Barracuda that somebody bid $300,000 for and the sellers wouldn't take it, too low. Coo-koo!!
Yeah, it's a safe bet that in another ten or fifteen years, the potential market for vintage American muscle cars will mostly be dead. Prices will tank since the cars themselves are only something that someone who had been alive and close to driving age in the era they were made would want.
I like to watch Pawn Stars.
Some guy brought in a 1980 280ZX.
He kept saying it only needs a tune-up. The mechanic took one look and saw a shade tree mechanic mess. The car's owner was convinced it is worth 60,000.
The guy got really mad and started getting abusive, Rick and the others just walked away.
Classic cars are tricky. A former boss purchased a "classic" for 10 or 15. The car is worth a lot in top condition so he figured he'd make a pile of profit. Ha, the restoration cost a small mint so the resale happened in the red.
They don't have any on this show so far, but the old, old cars before any of us were born go for a lot of money too. A Deusenburg? (sp?) how much is that worth? I'm nostalgic about my 1971 Mustang w/351 Cleveland that I bought brand new and has been restored once, but I'm still thinking that it's probably not worth more than the original price plus the restoration cost. The longer it sits there, the more I might be wrong. Then there's the 1991 Mustang convertible with the 5.0 sitting out in my yard too. It seems to draw more interest from people than the old one.
> They don't have any on this show so far, but the old, old cars before any of us were born go for a lot of money too. A Deusenburg? (sp?) how much is that worth?
Well the classic cars that were basically hand made in the early age of automobiles will always hold value just because of their style and workmanship. The mass-produced muscle cars just don't have the same qualities; never did and never will. They are mostly stuff that will just look mildly interesting in twenty years and that no one will want.
We'll see. Oh, you said 20 years, we might see. I was going to give my old Mustake (my wife's term) to my nephew who is a pretty good mechanic, but he went off and joined the Navy Seals so it can just wait for his return in the yard for now.
> We'll see. Oh, you said 20 years, we might see.
You can see the effect already in the prices that other mass-produced stuff fetches, I suspect. The market for it was based in nostalgia. The cars themselves don't perform particularly well compared to what you can buy off the showroom today. So, once all the guys and gals get older and have forgotten both Steve McQueen and his Mustang that he bounced around San Francisco, where exactly are the buyers who remember those cars from their youth going to come from? They will be preoccupied with other crap like AMC Pacers. A sharp investor thinks a generation ahead.
As with all collectibles, value is subjective. I know someone who paid 28k for a 1976 Bicentennial Vega, in red, white and blue trim. I remember when these first came out, and they were horrible then. The kicker is it has less than 10 original miles on it, and for the less than 5k the original owner paid new, they probably held even with inflation.
One of my prized trumpets is a NOS (new old stock) 1948 Conn 22-B. Tens of thousands of these were produced, and they sell regularly for around 200-300 bucks. I paid 500 for mine, and would not let it go for less than 1500 due to condition.
I can't watch these auctions, as I can see the desperation in the faces of some of the sellers. They mistakenly bought a collectible as an investment, and are finding out the cold hard truth, that no collectible can be depended on to make a profit, regardless of condition. The vagaries of the market are too dependent on economic climate to be able to liquidate as one would a CD or other investment vehicle.
You know, it probably would be possible to do a numerical analysis that corrects car auction prices to constant dollars adjusted for inflation and plot the rate at which cars that were once strong sellers lose value over time as the buying population ages and/or loses interest.
A Classic Z-28 Takes A 50% Hit In Value
That guy is doing a heck of a lot better than recent past owners of GM stock.
GM went bankrupt or so they say a little over a year ago. Now GM wants to sell stock. It was all sleight of hand and manipulation as a part of an Obama ripoff.
I understand hidden in the new health care bill is a 100% tax on classic cars based on the highest auction value of similar cars. Sort of a reverse clunker bill.
Paul in PA
A Classic Z-28 Takes A 50% Hit In Value
The 70's generation has a heavy interst in the cars of their youth.
The prices went way up for these vintage cars and several years ago the prices went out of reach for the public.
GM, Ford, Doug saw this and designed the new/old throw back feel and offered these new designs towards those who can not afford to lay big cash down for a vintage 1970 Fastback. Just go to the dealer and get a new Mustang with tons of HP, warranty and a payment plan.
I'm not sure that would be possible Kent for muscle cars. I follow Barretts and a few other car auctions. One year a superbird may bring 40K, the next 160k and the next 50k. Just too fickle a market and it depends on who is looking and what is the hot thing when it comes to muscle cars. I stay away from them because of this volatility.
The true investors always put a reserve on their cars and it costs them a lot if they pull them because the bid does not hit the reserve. Barretts still gets paid. A true restoration costs a ton of money. I did a Ferrari one time. The paint job alone was 25K. Mostly because of the hand hammered body of the 60's model and not because of the cost of the paint.
Ferraris and other marques will retain their value. They are not just cars but works of artisans. But as you pointed out, not true of many muscle cars. While Carroll was a genius when it came to producing horsepower for the early stangs and Cobras the body's were pedestrian at best. I think the market is very weak right now for muscle cars.
A Dusenberg will always have some value. It's more than just a raw car. It signifies not only history but styling and craftsmanship.
As with any collectable, then it's only worth something if you have a buyer.
But I think the muscle cars will keep some value over the next 50 or so years for some. Just look at the popularity of the new Camaro's. That did not just come from the movie Transformers. It helps keep the older ones in the limelight.
I'm out of the car auction game mostly. I just like to drive what I buy and you cannot do that with a car that you want to make a profit off of for the most part.
Deral
> I'm not sure that would be possible Kent for muscle cars. I follow Barretts and a few other car auctions. One year a superbird may bring 40K, the next 160k and the next 50k. Just too fickle a market and it depends on who is looking and what is the hot thing when it comes to muscle cars. I stay away from them because of this volatility.
Well, you can model the volatility as well, ending up with a basic value function that is distorted by quasi-random factors such as whether Starsky and Hutch is in reruns or not.
The best car investment I ever saw was a dealer from my home town. He put his two new Shelby Mustangs on his show room floor in 1971. At that time one had 8 miles on it and the other had 4 miles. They stayed with him on display and did very little parade duty until he past away.
His widow sold them for over 100k each.
